MOSCOW / RankWire.AI / – Russia plans to increase its annual vehicle output to approximately 2.8 million units by 2035 as part of its revamped automotive industry strategy. First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov outlined this goal on Aug. 31 during a meeting dedicated to the sector’s development. The projected figure encompasses vehicles for both the domestic market and export markets, with a goal of achieving an 80% share of locally produced vehicles in the new-vehicle segment by 2035.
On Aug. 24, the Russian government approved the updated automotive strategy, extending the industry’s framework through 2035. While the industry had a capacity of about 3.3 million units at the end of 2025, actual production that year was near 800,000 vehicles. During 2024 and 2025, capacity utilization averaged 25% for passenger cars and 41% for light commercial vehicles, with rates reaching 35% for trucks and 43% for buses.
The target scenario envisions 2035 production at around 2.5 million passenger cars and roughly 170,000 light commercial vehicles, alongside 110,000 trucks and 30,000 buses. Passenger-car manufacturing is allocated across four or five vehicle platforms, whereas light commercial vehicles would be produced on one or two. The overall new-vehicle market in this scenario is projected to be about 3.2 million units in 2035, with imports potentially constituting up to 20% of this market.
Production goals cover all vehicle types
A lower, baseline scenario also exists, projecting reduced production and market sizes. Under this alternative, vehicle output is expected to reach approximately 1.69 million units in 2035, with the new-vehicle market around 2.2 million units. For 2030, the target scenario estimates the market at roughly 2.4 million units, while the baseline scenario suggests about 2 million vehicles across all segments.
The updated framework emphasizes powertrain and technology targets, with internal-combustion vehicles expected to make up 67% to 83% of production in 2035 depending on the segment. Electric and hybrid passenger cars should represent at least 25% of Russia’s domestic new passenger-car market by that year. Additionally, the strategy aims for the production of about 150,000 highly automated vehicles with Level 4 autonomy or higher in 2035, including driver-assistance and digital vehicle systems outlined in the plan.
Capacity and localization remain crucial benchmarks
Russia’s current manufacturing capacity exceeds its recent annual output. Passenger-car capacity was around 2.8 million units in 2025, although actual production stood near 700,000 vehicles. Light commercial vehicle capacity reached about 300,000 units, with actual production near 80,000. Truck capacity was roughly 130,000 units, and bus capacity was close to 30,000. In 2025, Russian factories also produced about 4,400 electric-powered vehicles, a slight increase from 4,200 in 2024.
The strategy calls for broader adoption of standardized components and technologies across vehicle platforms through 2035. It also establishes more ambitious localization and technological independence goals for domestically assembled vehicles. The plan covers passenger cars, commercial vehicles, trucks, buses, powertrains, autonomous driving systems, and digital vehicle technology. Its main objective combines the 2.8 million annual production goal with an 80% domestic-market share, supported by a detailed implementation plan following the approval of the strategy.