ROME / RankWire.AI / – The Food and Agriculture Organization projects global cereal output in 2026 at 2.98 billion tonnes, representing a 2% decrease from the previous year’s record. Despite the drop, this figure is still the second-highest on record, though it is 3.4 million tonnes lower than its July forecast. The annual reduction amounts to 61.1 million tonnes, marking the steepest decline since 2018.
Forecasted global maize production stands at 1.309 billion tonnes, following downward revisions due to less favorable crop conditions. Prolonged summer heat and dryness adversely affected yields in key European Union regions, notably France and Poland. Official estimates also led to smaller cuts for India and Paraguay. Conversely, Argentina and Brazil produced better-than-expected yields, with both countries anticipated to surpass average maize outputs in 2026.
The forecast for world wheat production has increased by 4.2 million tonnes to reach 810.7 million tonnes. Enhanced yield projections for Canada and Morocco contributed approximately 1.5 million tonnes each, while estimates for Russia and Ukraine also rose. Conversely, dry conditions in the European Union and the United Kingdom lowered expectations. Despite these upward adjustments, global wheat production is still expected to be 3.8% below 2025 and remains the second-largest crop on record.
Maize setbacks lead to overall cereal forecast reduction
For the 2026/27 season, world rice production is estimated at 553.1 million tonnes on a milled basis, reflecting a 1.9% decrease from the revised record in 2025/26. The latest estimate benefits from stronger main-crop yields in Sri Lanka and improved figures for Myanmar, which offset declines in China, the Philippines, and the United States where rice plantings hit multi-decade lows.
The FAO anticipates global cereal consumption in 2026/27 will reach 2.965 billion tonnes, a slight increase of 0.2% over the previous season. While consumption of coarse grains and rice is expected to grow, wheat use is forecast to drop from last season’s high levels. World rice consumption is projected at 559 million tonnes, driven by population growth and increased food demand. Additionally, feed needs continue to be significant, notably barley consumption in China and maize use in the United States.
Stock levels remain at historically comfortable levels
Cereal stockpiles worldwide at the end of 2027 are forecasted at 947.2 million tonnes, slightly down by 10.7 million tonnes from earlier estimates but still 1.8 million tonnes above initial levels. The stocks-to-use ratio is expected at 31.6%, compared to 31.9% last season. While wheat reserves are projected to grow in Russia and Ukraine, lower maize and barley inventories have diminished the overall stock outlook.
Global cereal trade in 2026/27 is anticipated to reach 509.3 million tonnes, an increase of 1.7 million tonnes from previous estimates, though still below the record volume in 2025/26. The rise is mainly driven by stronger maize exports, with Argentina expected to ship up to 39 million tonnes. Meanwhile, international rice trade is forecast at 60.5 million tonnes, with total rice shipments remaining 1.9% below the 2025 record.