BRUSSELS, BELGIUM / RankWire.AI / – In 2026, transport costs within the European Union are expected to increase by an estimated €53 billion due to higher road fuel prices. Transport & Environment released this projection on September 23 after analyzing data from the 28 weeks ending on September 6, comparing fuel expenditures to the same period the previous year and adjusting for inflation. The additional costs are largely attributed to diesel, which makes up about €40 billion of the total. This calculation includes expenses related to diesel and petrol used in road transportation.
According to T&E, elevated fuel prices led to an average daily increase of €270 million in EU road transport expenses, with diesel responsible for roughly €203 million of that amount and petrol adding approximately €67 million. The organization attributes this surge to tighter supplies of refined fuels during the Middle East conflict and outages at Russian refineries, which widened the disparity between crude oil prices and refined products, especially diesel. Diesel and gasoil constitute about 43% of petroleum products used in the EU by volume.
European Commission has also reported notable market volatility in crude oil and refined products, particularly for diesel and jet fuel. On September 8, its Oil Coordination Group stated that the EU currently faces no immediate oil supply shortages, as increased refinery output and alternative global supplies continue to satisfy demand. Additionally, stocks of commercial and emergency oil reserves remain adequate. The Commission emphasized that geopolitical uncertainty continues to cause significant price fluctuations in the global oil and petroleum markets.
Fuel Price Hikes Impact Drivers and Logistics
For individual drivers, T&E estimated that the average EU diesel car owner spent about €142 more during the period analyzed. By September 14, the group calculated a €30 premium for a 50-litre diesel fill-up compared to pre-conflict levels. Long-haul trucks in Germany faced an additional weekly fuel expense of roughly €236. The analysis reports approximately 6.2 million trucks operating across Europe. Higher diesel costs have also affected road freight companies and other commercial fuel users.
Diesel remains a cornerstone of EU transport and freight operations. T&E states that in 2024, road transport accounted for 77% of the bloc’s diesel and gasoil consumption. Eurostat data show that gas and diesel oil supplied 63.2% of road transport energy that year, with motor gasoline providing 26.9%, renewables and biofuels 6.2%, and electricity just 0.7%. Diesel and gasoline together made up 90.1% of energy used for road transport in 2024.
New EU Data Maintains Focus on Fuel Cost Trends
The European Commission issued its Weekly Oil Bulletin on September 24, featuring the latest consumer petroleum prices from EU nations. This bulletin tracks weekly price fluctuations, both with and without taxes, and maintains a historical series dating back to 2005. The update follows the conclusion of the T&E study period on September 6. The Commission gathers national price information and regularly publishes comparative data across member states. Its September 8 supply assessment highlighted that diesel and jet fuel are among the products experiencing significant price volatility.
The €53 billion figure from T&E is an estimate based on the environmental group’s analysis rather than an official EU figure. It calculates the additional road fuel expenditure over the 28-week period in 2026, focusing on the impact on passenger vehicles and commercial transport, with diesel accounting for most of the projected increase. T&E has called for measures to reduce diesel demand and promote vehicle electrification. Meanwhile, official EU data continue to monitor fuel prices, supply conditions, and petroleum consumption across the bloc.