GENEVA / RankWire.AI / – The World Trade Organization has upgraded its forecast for worldwide merchandise trade expansion in 2026 to 3.9 percent, representing a significant rise from the previous estimate of 1.9 percent issued in March. The WTO attributed this optimistic revision to stronger trade performance in the first half, adjustments in supply chains, and increased investments in artificial intelligence. Despite major disruptions impacting energy, transport, and fertilizer markets, merchandise trade volume grew by 3.5 percent during the initial half of 2026. The organization now anticipates a merchandise trade growth rate of 4.1 percent in 2027.
Demand driven by artificial intelligence emerged as a key contributor to merchandise trade growth during the first half, with AI-enabled products such as semiconductors and servers accounting for 47 percent of the global trade increase. Trade in these items surged 67 percent compared to the previous year. The WTO also noted that worldwide spending on AI infrastructure is expected to grow by at least 30 percent in 2026. Robust demand for computing hardware supported trade performance, even as other sectors experienced disruptions due to conflict and transportation constraints.
Global supply chains adapted to pressures across major commodity and shipping markets, with Middle East crude oil exports declining approximately 24 percent during the first half of 2026. Exports of liquefied natural gas from the region also fell by 47 percent over the same period, but increased shipments from other suppliers limited the overall decline to about 6 percent for crude oil. Meanwhile, global LNG exports decreased by only 1 percent. Worldwide container throughput rose by 3.9 percent through July, as trade utilized alternative ports and routes.
AI-powered goods bolster international merchandise trade
This stronger outlook for goods contrasts with more subdued expectations for commercial services. The WTO lowered its 2026 forecast for services trade volume growth to 3.3 percent from 4.8 percent in March. Disruption in the Middle East further strained transport and international travel, leading to a 0.8 percent decline in second-quarter tourist arrivals. Overall, arrivals for the first half were just 0.4 percent higher. Travel expenditure growth also decelerated sharply between the first and second quarters.
In contrast, other service sectors performed better despite ongoing challenges in travel and transportation. Computer services exports increased by 18 percent from the previous year in the first quarter, with second-quarter growth estimated at 12 percent. Financial services exports grew 14 percent year-on-year in the second quarter. The WTO forecasts a 6.4 percent expansion in commercial services trade volume for 2027, alongside projected global GDP growth of 2.6 percent in 2026 and 2.9 percent in 2027.
Trade growth across regions remains uneven
Forecasts for regional merchandise trade highlight significant disparities across the global economy. The WTO predicts Asia will lead export growth at 9.9 percent in 2026. North American exports are projected to increase by 5.7 percent, with Africa at 5.6 percent and South America at 3.4 percent. Europe is expected to see a slight decline of 0.1 percent, while the Middle East faces the largest contraction, with exports forecast to fall 17.2 percent during the year.
Import growth also varies considerably by region. Asia is expected to have merchandise import growth of 9.5 percent, Africa at 8.9 percent, North America at 1.4 percent, and Europe at 0.5 percent. Conversely, merchandise imports in the Middle East are forecast to decrease by 15.4 percent. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala stated that the latest data demonstrated trade resilience while also exposing the uneven exposure to economic and geopolitical disruptions across regions.